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Anaheim DucksLeo Carlsson
#91 · C · 6' 3" · 203 lb · 42 games
Stats updated: May 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.0 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalWarm overFireFactor 24/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency10argues against it
Projection
3.2 SOG(×0.97 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 3.5 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season42 games
60%over
25 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 44%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 40/42 | ||
| 83% | 35/42 | ||
| 2.5Current | 60% | 25/42 | |
| 36% | 15/42 | ||
| 17% | 7/42 | ||
| 10% | 4/42 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home69%11/16Medium
Away54%14/26Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%2/6Low
1 day57%8/14Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days75%12/16Medium
Last matchup — @ VGK
May 13, 2026
25thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
VGK allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 619 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Leo Carlsson has gone over 2.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 60% across the full season. VGK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.