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Detroit Red WingsLucas Raymond
#23 · LW · 5' 11" · 188 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.4 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 8/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.9 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 1.9 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season46 games
41%over
19 over · 27 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–56%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 44/46 | ||
| 67% | 31/46 | ||
| 2.5Current | 41% | 19/46 | |
| 22% | 10/46 | ||
| 9% | 4/46 | ||
| 2% | 1/46 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home39%9/23Medium
Away43%10/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)29%2/7Low
1 day27%4/15Medium
2 days70%7/10Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — vs NJ
Apr 11, 2026
29thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
NJ allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 483 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Lucas Raymond has gone over 2.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 41% across the full season. NJ has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 29th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.