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Buffalo SabresMattias Samuelsson
#23 · D · 6' 4" · 229 lb · 42 games
Stats updated: May 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.3 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season42 games
40%over
17 over · 25 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–56%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 32/42 | ||
| 1.5Current | 40% | 17/42 | |
| 24% | 10/42 | ||
| 12% | 5/42 | ||
| 5% | 2/42 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%10/20Medium
Away32%7/22Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%3/6Low
1 day38%5/13Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days39%7/18Medium
Last matchup — vs MTL
May 18, 2026
8thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
MTL allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 293 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mattias Samuelsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 40% across the full season. MTL has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 8th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.