Toronto Maple Leafs

Max Domi Goals

Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Max Domi has gone over 0.5 G in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksGoals · season avg 0.2 G · our line

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OutMax Domi isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Back Surgery
Est. return:: Nov 7, 2026

Chayka indicated last week that Domi would miss the start of training camp due to complications related to his offseason surgery, but Wednesday's update indicates that he's slated to miss all of training camp and a portion of the regular season. Domi made 80 regular-season appearances for Toronto last year, and he recorded 12 goals, 24 assists, 95 PIM, 37 hits and 35 blocked shots while averaging 14:53 of ice time.

Verdict

vs 0.5 GGoals

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 79% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line79supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 G(×0.96 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

30%over

6 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%

Season45 games

20%over

9 over · 36 under

High confidence95% CI 11%–34%

Alternate lines — Goals (G)

G over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate G line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	9/45
	0%	0/45
	0%	0/45
	0%	0/45

Last 20 games — G per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 G by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home21%4/19Medium

Away19%5/26Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)40%2/5Low

1 day19%3/16Medium

2 days17%1/6Low

3+ days12%2/17Medium

With a teammate out

How this G line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Dakota Joshua out · Undisclosed

Without (20g)

0.3 G

25% over 0.5

With (25g)

0.2 G

16% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs DAL

Apr 13, 2026

12thof 32 in G allowed to forwards

DAL allows 0.2 G per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 554 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Max Domi has gone over 0.5 G 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 20% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most G of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game G have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.