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Minnesota WildMichael McCarron
#47 · C · 6' 6" · 232 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: May 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.4 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 11/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.3 SOG(×1.05 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season36 games
39%over
14 over · 22 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–55%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 26/36 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 14/36 | |
| 17% | 6/36 | ||
| 8% | 3/36 | ||
| 0% | 0/36 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%5/15Medium
Away43%9/21Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day30%3/10Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days43%9/21Medium
Last matchup — @ COL
May 14, 2026
21stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
COL allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 560 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Michael McCarron has gone over 1.5 SOG 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 39% across the full season. COL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.