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Montreal CanadiensMike Matheson
#8 · D · 6' 2" · 196 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Linepays less
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.4 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMike Matheson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Lower Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 14, 2026
Matheson to miss his second stretch of games this season due to a lower-body injury. It remains to be seen whether his current issue is a flare up of his previous injury. Prior to going down, the 32-year-old defenseman posted a goal, three assists, a plus-1 rating, 15 shots on net, five hits and 13 blocked shots across eight appearances this season. In his absence, the 22-year-old Adam Engstrom should have a chance to earn more playing time over the next two weeks and beyond. If Matheson is ultimately shifted to injured reserve, he's a solid IR stash in deep fantasy leagues.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line24argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.3 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 2.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Next matchup — vs UTAH
Nov 6, 2026
21stof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
UTAH allows 1.2 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 50 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Mike Matheson has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. UTAH has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 21st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.