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New Jersey DevilsNick Bjugstad
#77 · C · 6' 5" · 205 lb · 31 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Minnesota
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNick Bjugstad isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Pectoral Surgery
- Est. return:
- Mar 11, 2027
Bjugstad underwent surgery to repair a torn left pectoral muscle in September, and he was transferred to long-term injured reserve in early October. The 34-year-old isn't expected to be in the mix to return to game action until at least January, but he'll likely have the chance to compete for a bottom-six role once he's cleared to suit up.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.7 SOG(×0.98 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.7 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season31 games
42%over
13 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 24/31 | ||
| 1.5Current | 42% | 13/31 | |
| 10% | 3/31 | ||
| 6% | 2/31 | ||
| 3% | 1/31 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%7/15Low
Away38%6/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day45%5/11Low
2 days67%4/6Low
3+ days30%3/10Low
Next matchup — vs STL
Nov 6, 2026
19thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
STL allows 1.8 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 88 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Nick Bjugstad has gone over 1.5 SOG 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 42% across the full season. STL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 19th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.