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Montreal CanadiensNick Suzuki
#14 · C · 5' 11" · 207 lb · 37 games
Stats updated: May 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.2 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalCool underFireFactor 25/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.1 SOG(×1.07 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 1.6 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season37 games
38%over
14 over · 23 under
Medium confidence95% CI 24%–54%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 34/37 | ||
| 65% | 24/37 | ||
| 2.5Current | 38% | 14/37 | |
| 16% | 6/37 | ||
| 5% | 2/37 | ||
| 5% | 2/37 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%7/17Medium
Away35%7/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day50%4/8Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days27%6/22Medium
Last matchup — vs CAR
May 28, 2026
31stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CAR allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 597 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Nick Suzuki has gone over 2.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 38% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 31st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.