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Vegas Golden KnightsNoah Hanifin
#15 · D · 6' 3" · 206 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.9 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 17/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
2.5 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 1.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.2 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 1.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Nov 6, 2026
14thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
DET allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 51 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Noah Hanifin has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 14th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.