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Vegas Golden KnightsRasmus Andersson
#4 · D · 6' 1" · 202 lb · 6 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 2 of these 6 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.2 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalBlazing overFireFactor 83/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line81supports it
Consistency47neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
2.2 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 106 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Last 206 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Season6 games
83%over
5 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 44%–97%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 1.5Current | 83% | 5/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
1 day100%2/2Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Nov 6, 2026
14thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
DET allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 51 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Rasmus Andersson has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 6 decided times (83%) — versus 83% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 14th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 57.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 42.3%
Best Over
DraftKings-160
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet+125
-4.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.4%
Our model puts the over at 70.1% vs the market's no-vig 57.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 83%.