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Buffalo SabresRasmus Dahlin
#26 · D · 6' 3" · 204 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.1 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency47neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
3.4 SOG(×1.07 context)
L5 3.4 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.6 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 3.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — vs CBJ
Nov 7, 2026
4thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
CBJ allows 1.6 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 54 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Rasmus Dahlin has gone over 3.5 SOG 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. CBJ has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 4th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 53.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 46.5%
Best Over
DraftKings-120
-2.0% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+116
+0.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.4%
Our model puts the over at 46.0% vs the market's no-vig 53.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.