Philadelphia Flyers

Rasmus Ristolainen Points

Stats updated: Oct 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rasmus Ristolainen has gone over 0.5 PTS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 15 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksPoints · season avg 0.5 PTS · PrizePicks line

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OutRasmus Ristolainen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Hand Not Specified
Est. return:: Nov 11, 2026

Ristolainen's placement on injured reserve was expected after head coach Rick Tocchet announced that the 32-year-old blueliner would miss roughly two weeks. Ristolainen had already missed nine games due to the same hand issue earlier in the season, but the injury flared back up in Saturday's clash against the Ducks. When healthy, he's been solid with a goal, five shots on net, seven hits and seven blocked shots across four appearances this season. In his absence, Cam York has been activated off injured reserve and should take on some of the minutes vacated by Ristolainen.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PTSPoints

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.5 PTS(×0.96 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2013 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Season13 games

38%over

5 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	5/13
	15%	2/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — PTS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low

1 day33%1/3Low

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — @ CGY

Nov 9, 2026

29thof 32 in PTS allowed to defensemen

CGY allows 0.3 PTS per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 48 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Rasmus Ristolainen has gone over 0.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 38% across the full season. CGY has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 29th-most PTS of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.