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Washington CapitalsRasmus Sandin
#38 · D · 5' 11" · 189 lb · 35 games
Stats updated: Apr 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRasmus Sandin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Dec 26, 2026
Sandin is still recovering from knee surgery, and moving to LTIR won't impact his timeline. After having his right ACL repaired in late April, he received a timetable of 6-9 months for his recovery. Sandin registered five goals, 29 points, 90 shots on net, 127 blocked shots and 88 hits in 73 games for Washington during the 2025-26 regular season.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 SOG(×1.00 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season35 games
43%over
15 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26/35 | ||
| 1.5Current | 43% | 15/35 | |
| 17% | 6/35 | ||
| 9% | 3/35 | ||
| 6% | 2/35 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%8/18Medium
Away41%7/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day33%3/9Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days50%9/18Medium
Last matchup — @ TOR
Apr 8, 2026
2ndof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
TOR allows 1.6 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 57 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rasmus Sandin has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 43% across the full season. TOR has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 2nd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.