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Montreal CanadiensSam Montembeault
#35 · G · 6' 3" · 218 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 23.6 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam Montembeault isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Lower Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 10, 2026
Montembeault will miss his 11th straight game against Pittsburgh on Saturday, but he participated in the morning skate and appears to be working his way toward a return. He hasn't logged any playing time in the 2026-27 season, and it will be difficult for him to get starts once he's healthy behind Jacob Fowler and Jakub Dobes.
Verdict
vs 23.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
25.2 SV(×1.01 context)
L5 23.0 · L10 26.0 · med 26.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 18.0 · ceil 28.6
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season23 games
48%over
11 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–67%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 15/23 | ||
| 61% | 14/23 | ||
| 52% | 12/23 | ||
| 23.5Current | 48% | 11/23 | |
| 39% | 9/23 | ||
| 30% | 7/23 | ||
| 30% | 7/23 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%4/12Low
Away64%7/11Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/3Low
3+ days61%11/18Medium
Last matchup — @ ANA
Mar 7, 2026
29thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
ANA allows 21.1 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam Montembeault has gone over 23.5 SV 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 48% across the full season. ANA has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 29th-most SV of 32 teams (21.1 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.