Carolina Hurricanes

Seth Jarvis Points

Stats updated: Jun 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Seth Jarvis has gone over 0.5 PTS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Experience: 6 seasons

Line

Points · season avg 0.7 PTS

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OutSeth Jarvis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Shoulder Surgery
Est. return:: Oct 24, 2026

Jarvis is coming back from surgery for a torn labrum and rotator cuff. It was his first time on the ice with teammates during his recovery process, which was initially given a 4-6 month timeline in late June. The forward looks to be ahead of schedule, though it's unlikely he'll be ready for the start of the season even with the strong progress he's made so far. However, fantasy managers can have some optimism that he will be back in October rather than missing half of the season, as long as he's able to avoid setbacks.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PTSPoints

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 PTS(×1.03 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

55%over

11 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%

Season39 games

62%over

24 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 46%–75%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	62%	24/39
	10%	4/39
	0%	0/39
	0%	0/39

Last 20 games — PTS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home58%11/19Medium

Away65%13/20Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low

1 day67%6/9Low

2 days67%4/6Low

3+ days62%13/21Medium

Last matchup — vs VGK

Jun 12, 2026

22ndof 32 in PTS allowed to forwards

VGK allows 0.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 619 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Seth Jarvis has gone over 0.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. VGK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 22nd-most PTS of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.