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Washington CapitalsTom Wilson
#43 · RW · 6' 4" · 225 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.3 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalCool underFireFactor 37/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.1 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season46 games
37%over
17 over · 29 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–51%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 42/46 | ||
| 63% | 29/46 | ||
| 2.5Current | 37% | 17/46 | |
| 20% | 9/46 | ||
| 11% | 5/46 | ||
| 4% | 2/46 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home48%10/21Medium
Away28%7/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)44%4/9Low
1 day64%7/11Low
2 days11%1/9Medium
3+ days25%4/16Medium
Last matchup — @ NYR
Apr 5, 2026
18thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
NYR allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 529 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tom Wilson has gone over 2.5 SOG 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 37% across the full season. NYR has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 18th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 37%.