Pittsburgh Penguins

Tommy Novak Points

Stats updated: Apr 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tommy Novak has gone over 0.5 PTS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Minnesota
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Points · season avg 0.4 PTS

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Verdict

vs 0.5 PTSPoints

Cold underFireFactor 56/100· model 72% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line72supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 PTS(×1.07 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2020 games

30%over

6 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%

Season34 games

29%over

10 over · 24 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–46%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	29%	10/34
	6%	2/34
	0%	0/34
	0%	0/34

Last 20 games — PTS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%6/15Medium

Away21%4/19Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)43%3/7Low

1 day20%1/5Low

2 days14%1/7Low

3+ days36%5/14Medium

Last matchup — @ PHI

Apr 29, 2026

31stof 32 in PTS allowed to forwards

PHI allows 0.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 542 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tommy Novak has gone over 0.5 PTS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 29% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 31st-most PTS of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.