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Philadelphia FlyersTrevor Zegras
#46 · C · 6' 0" · 185 lb · 55 games
Stats updated: May 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston University
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.3 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 9/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)80supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.7 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 1.7 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season55 games
62%over
34 over · 21 under
High confidence95% CI 49%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 51/55 | ||
| 1.5Current | 62% | 34/55 | |
| 36% | 20/55 | ||
| 20% | 11/55 | ||
| 13% | 7/55 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%22/31Medium
Away50%12/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%3/6Low
1 day79%11/14Medium
2 days44%4/9Low
3+ days63%15/24Medium
Last matchup — vs CAR
May 9, 2026
31stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CAR allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 597 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Zegras has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 31st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.