Anaheim Ducks

Troy Terry Hits

Stats updated: May 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Troy Terry has gone over 0.5 HITS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Denver
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksHits · season avg 0.1 HITS · our line

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OutTroy Terry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Hip Surgery
Est. return:: Nov 21, 2026

Terry underwent hip surgery in June and received a recovery timeline of 5-6 months. He still seems to be on track for a November return, but the exact date remains unclear. Terry compiled 19 goals, 57 points and 161 shots on net in 61 games during the 2025-26 regular season. Once he's ready to play, he will likely occupy a top-line role.

Verdict

vs 0.5 HITSHits

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 87% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 HITS(×1.00 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

15%over

3 over · 17 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–36%

Season39 games

8%over

3 over · 36 under

High confidence95% CI 3%–20%

Alternate lines — Hits (HITS)

HITS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate HITS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	8%	3/39
	5%	2/39
	0%	0/39
	0%	0/39

Last 20 games — HITS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 HITS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home9%2/22Medium

Away6%1/17Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/5Medium

1 day8%1/13Medium

2 days20%1/5Low

3+ days7%1/15Medium

With a teammate out

How this HITS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Nick Jensen out · Lower Body+0.2 HITS when he sits

Without (25g)

0.2 HITS

12% over 0.5

With (14g)

0.0 HITS

0% over 0.5

Ian Moore out · Not Specified Lower Body Not Specified

Without (10g)

0.2 HITS

10% over 0.5

With (29g)

0.1 HITS

7% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs VGK

May 15, 2026

3rdof 32 in HITS allowed to forwards

VGK allows 1.6 HITS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 619 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Troy Terry has gone over 0.5 HITS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 8% across the full season. VGK has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most HITS of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game HITS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.