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Chicago BlackhawksTyler Bertuzzi
#59 · LW · 6' 2" · 200 lb · 38 games
Stats updated: Apr 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.8 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 2.1 · med 2.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season38 games
58%over
22 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 34/38 | ||
| 1.5Current | 58% | 22/38 | |
| 37% | 14/38 | ||
| 18% | 7/38 | ||
| 8% | 3/38 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%8/17Medium
Away67%14/21Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%3/3Low
1 day64%7/11Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days58%11/19Medium
Last matchup — vs BUF
Apr 14, 2026
12thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
BUF allows 1.9 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 571 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Bertuzzi has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. BUF has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 12th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.