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Edmonton OilersVasily Podkolzin
#92 · RW · 6' 1" · 190 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency2argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
2.5 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.9 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 11/11 | ||
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 2.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ UTAH
Oct 18, 2026
25thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
UTAH allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 51 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Vasily Podkolzin has gone over 2.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 2.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.1%
Best Over
FanDuel+108
-4.4% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-125
-2.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.3%
Our model puts the over at 45.6% vs the market's no-vig 45.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.