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Columbus Blue JacketsZach Werenski
#8 · D · 6' 2" · 211 lb · 35 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 4.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
4.8 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 4.4 · L10 3.8 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season35 games
57%over
20 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 34/35 | ||
| 94% | 33/35 | ||
| 83% | 29/35 | ||
| 3.5Current | 57% | 20/35 | |
| 40% | 14/35 | ||
| 23% | 8/35 | ||
| 14% | 5/35 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%8/15Low
Away60%12/20Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day71%5/7Low
2 days86%6/7Low
3+ days33%5/15Medium
Last matchup — vs BOS
Apr 12, 2026
16thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
BOS allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 245 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zach Werenski has gone over 3.5 SOG 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 57% across the full season. BOS has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 16th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.