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Connecticut SunAaliyah Edwards
#8 · F · 6' 3" · 10 games
Stats updated: Jul 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- UConn
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 13.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAaliyah Edwards isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Knee
- Est. return:
- Aug 7, 2026
Edwards will miss a fourth consecutive contest due to a right knee injury, and her next opportunity to suit up will come Friday against the Mercury. In the meantime, Diamond Miller, Kennedy Burke and Nell Angloma are candidates to see increased playing time.
Verdict
vs 11.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
12.6 PTS(×0.93 context)
L5 12.2 · L10 13.0 · med 11.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.6 · ceil 16.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 11.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brittney Griner out · Left Knee+0.8 PTS when he sits
Without (6g)
13.3 PTS
50% over 11.5
With (4g)
12.5 PTS
50% over 11.5
Hailey Van Lith out · Coach's Decision+4.6 PTS when he sits
Without (6g)
14.8 PTS
67% over 11.5
With (4g)
10.3 PTS
25% over 11.5
Last matchup — @ PHX
Jul 18, 2026
11thof 15 in PTS allowed to forwards
PHX allows 9.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Aaliyah Edwards has gone over 11.5 PTS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PHX has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 11th-most PTS of 15 teams (9.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.