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Atlanta DreamAngel Reese Steals
Stats updated: Aug 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Angel Reese has gone over 1.5 STL in 10 of his last 10 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Linepays less
Steals · season avg 1.9 STL · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 STLStealsWarm overFireFactor 39/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.4 STL(×1.02 context)
L5 2.8 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.2 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~65% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
100%over
10 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 72%–100%Last 2017 games
76%over
13 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 53%–90%Season17 games
76%over
13 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 53%–90%Alternate lines — Steals (STL)
STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 14/17 | ||
| 1.5Current | 76% | 13/17 | |
| 24% | 4/17 | ||
| 12% | 2/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home88%7/8Medium
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
1 day100%4/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days70%7/10Low
With a teammate out
How this STL line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Te-Hina Paopao out · Right Leg+1.3 STL when he sits
Without (3g)
3.0 STL
100% over 1.5
With (14g)
1.7 STL
71% over 1.5
Last matchup — vs SEA
Jul 31, 2026
7thof 15 in STL allowed to forwards
SEA allows 0.9 STL per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 66 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Angel Reese has gone over 1.5 STL 10 of 10 decided times (100%) — versus 76% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 7th-most STL of 15 teams (0.9 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Steals (STL)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 STL). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 76%.
More Angel Reese research
Angel Reese — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Reese Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Reese Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Reese 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Reese Blocks→
Blocks hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
WNBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.