Portland Fire

Bridget Carleton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bridget Carleton has gone over 28.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Iowa State
Experience: 9 seasons

PrizePicks payout options — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

Verdict

vs 28.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Hot overFireFactor 66/100· model 66% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency62supports it

Projection

31.2 FS(×0.96 context)

L5 33.8 · L10 31.1 · med 31.4

Consistency

Steady

floor 27.7 · ceil 38.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2012 games

75%over

9 over · 3 under

Medium confidence95% CI 47%–91%

Season12 games

75%over

9 over · 3 under

Medium confidence95% CI 47%–91%

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 28.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 28.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away100%5/5Medium

Days since last game

1 day0%0/1Low

2 days100%1/1Low

3+ days78%7/9Low

Last matchup — vs IND

Jul 31, 2026

5thof 15 in FS allowed to forwards

IND allows 22.4 FS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 55 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bridget Carleton has gone over 28.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 75% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 15 teams (22.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.