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Indiana FeverCaitlin Clark
#22 · G · 6' 0" · 157 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Aug 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 23.3 PTS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Points (PTS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Caitlin Clark's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
Clark was also listed as probable leading up to Tuesday's clash against the Liberty, so she appears on track to play again Friday. The team should have final word on her availability as tipoff approaches.
Verdict
vs 22 PTSPointsWarm overFireFactor 20/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency61supports it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
24.1 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 22.6 · L10 24.3 · med 25.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.4 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 1010 games
67%over
6 over · 3 under · 1 push
Low confidence95% CI 35%–88%Last 2018 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under · 2 push
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season18 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under · 2 push
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Situational splits
Over 22 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day80%4/5Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Damiris Dantas out · Left Knee-2.6 PTS when he sits
Without (11g)
22.3 PTS
56% over 22
With (7g)
24.9 PTS
57% over 22
Next matchup — vs DAL
Aug 14, 2026
12thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 11.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 97 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Caitlin Clark has gone over 22 PTS 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 56% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 12th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 21.5 PTS- No-vig fair (over)
- 53.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 47.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-122
-3.5% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+100
-6.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+10.6%
Our model puts the over at 63.6% vs the market's no-vig 53.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Points (PTS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (21.5 PTS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.