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Minnesota LynxCourtney Williams Rebounds
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Courtney Williams has gone over 4 REB in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- South Florida
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rebounds · season avg 5.8 REB · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rebounds (REB)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 4 REBReboundsHot overFireFactor 63/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
5.0 REB(×1.02 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 5.3 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.8 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under · 2 push
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 1010 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under · 4 push
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 2020 games
75%over
12 over · 4 under · 4 push
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–90%Season20 games
75%over
12 over · 4 under · 4 push
Medium confidence95% CI 51%–90%Situational splits
Over 4 REB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home70%7/10Low
Away83%5/6Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day100%2/2Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days78%7/9Low
With a teammate out
How this REB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Liatu King out · Coach's Decision+1.5 REB when he sits
Without (15g)
6.1 REB
82% over 4
With (5g)
4.6 REB
60% over 4
Last matchup — vs IND
Aug 2, 2026
13thof 15 in REB allowed to guards
IND allows 2.5 REB per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 86 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Courtney Williams has gone over 4 REB 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 75% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 13th-most REB of 15 teams (2.5 per game). His game-to-game REB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 4.5 REB- No-vig fair (over)
- 42.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 57.1%
Best Over
FanDuel+122
-4.7% EV
Best Under
Caesars-154
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+26.2%
Our model puts the over at 69.2% vs the market's no-vig 42.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rebounds (REB)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REB). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.
More Courtney Williams research
Courtney Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Williams 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Williams Steals→
Steals hit rates and trends.
Williams Blocks→
Blocks hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
WNBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.