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New York LibertyHan Xu
#21 · C · 6' 11" · 203 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Aug 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 8.5 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 8.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 31/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
8.5 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 8.6 · L10 8.6 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 13.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2011 games
36%over
4 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%Season11 games
36%over
4 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 8.5Current | 36% | 4/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days50%2/4Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Satou Sabally out · Concussion-2.5 PTS when he sits
Without (8g)
7.9 PTS
25% over 8.5
With (3g)
10.3 PTS
67% over 8.5
Last matchup — vs SEA
Aug 3, 2026
6thof 15 in PTS allowed to centers
SEA allows 11.4 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Han Xu has gone over 8.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 36% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 6th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.