Loading…
Portland FireHolly Winterburn
#77 · G · 5' 11" · 10 games
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Points · season avg 6.6 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHolly Winterburn isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Back Spasms
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Winterburn will be held out of Portland's season finale due to a back injury, and she'll finish the 2026 campaign having averaged 4.0 points, 1.8 assists and 1.4 rebounds across 11.2 minutes per game in 29 regular-season appearances (one start). She began the season on a developmental deal before being converted to a standard contract, and the 25-year-old guard is set to be an unrestricted free agent this season.
Verdict
vs 4.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
7.2 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 6.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.0 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 4.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 30% | 3/10 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day0%0/2Low
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs GS
Sep 23, 2026
15thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
GS allows 9.5 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 103 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Holly Winterburn has gone over 4.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. GS has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 15th-most PTS of 15 teams (9.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.