
Stats updated: Aug 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jonquel Jones has gone over 26 PRA in 6 of his last 9 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Over 26 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
How this PRA line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
SEA allows 18.9 PRA per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
NeutralOver his last 10 games, Jonquel Jones has gone over 26 PRA 6 of 9 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 8th-most PRA of 15 teams (18.9 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Our model puts the over at 61.8% vs the market's no-vig 48.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (26.5 PRA). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.