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Phoenix MercuryKahleah Copper Steals
Stats updated: Aug 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Kahleah Copper has gone over 0.5 STL in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Rutgers
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Steals · season avg 0.9 STL · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKahleah Copper isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Groin
- Est. return:
- Sep 21, 2026
Copper is on track to return from a three-game absence Monday, which will likely result in Alexa Held heading back to the second unit. Copper is averaging 21.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.7 triples per game this season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 STLStealsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)90supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
0.7 STL(×0.86 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season22 games
64%over
14 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–80%Alternate lines — Steals (STL)
STL over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 64% | 14/22 | |
| 18% | 4/22 | ||
| 5% | 1/22 | ||
| 0% | 0/22 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 STL by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days58%7/12Low
With a teammate out
How this STL line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kelsey Plum out · Left Lower Leg-0.2 STL when he sits
Without (16g)
0.8 STL
69% over 0.5
With (6g)
1.0 STL
50% over 0.5
Jovana Nogic out · Not Injury Related
Without (13g)
0.8 STL
69% over 0.5
With (9g)
0.9 STL
56% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs DAL
Sep 22, 2026
15thof 15 in STL allowed to guards
DAL allows 0.8 STL per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 123 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kahleah Copper has gone over 0.5 STL 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 64% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 15th-most STL of 15 teams (0.8 per game). His game-to-game STL have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 64%.
More Kahleah Copper research
Kahleah Copper — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Copper Rebounds→
Rebounds hit rates and trends.
Copper Assists→
Assists hit rates and trends.
Copper 3-Pointers Made→
3-Pointers Made hit rates and trends.
Copper Blocks→
Blocks hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
WNBA Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.