Phoenix Mercury

Kelsey Plum Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Aug 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kelsey Plum has gone over 39.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Washington
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 39.0 FS · our line

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OutKelsey Plum isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Lower Leg
Est. return:: May 1, 2027

Plum is still not feeling the effects of a lingering lower leg injury and will be shut down with the Mercury out of the playoffs. The star guard is set to become a free agent at the conclusion of the season. In five appearances with the Mercury, she averaged 15.8 points and 2.8 assists.

Verdict

vs 39.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 32% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line32argues against it

Consistency58neutral

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

34.1 FS(×0.88 context)

L5 39.4 · L10 39.7 · med 40.7

Consistency

Steady

floor 30.2 · ceil 47.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	55%	6/11
	55%	6/11
	55%	6/11
39.5Current	55%	6/11
	45%	5/11
	45%	5/11
	36%	4/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 39.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 39.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low

1 day100%2/2Low

2 days100%1/1Low

3+ days20%1/5Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jovana Nogic out · Not Injury Related-7.3 FS when he sits

Without (6g)

35.7 FS

50% over 39.5

With (5g)

43.0 FS

60% over 39.5

Next matchup — vs DAL

Sep 22, 2026

13thof 15 in FS allowed to guards

DAL allows 21.7 FS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 122 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kelsey Plum has gone over 39.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 15 teams (21.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.