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Minnesota LynxMaya Caldwell
#3 · G · 5' 11" · 160 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 6.1 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
6.4 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 5.9 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.8 · ceil 7.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 5.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days45%5/11Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Liatu King out · Coach's Decision-0.5 PTS when he sits
Without (11g)
6.0 PTS
55% over 5.5
With (4g)
6.5 PTS
25% over 5.5
Last matchup — vs IND
Aug 2, 2026
10thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
IND allows 11.5 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 86 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Maya Caldwell has gone over 5.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 10th-most PTS of 15 teams (11.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.