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Connecticut SunSaniya Rivers
#22 · G · 6' 1" · 17 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- NC State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 9.9 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSaniya Rivers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Ankle
- Est. return:
- May 1, 2027
Rivers is missing the regular-season finale with an ankle injury. She's under contract for next year after averaging 6.9 points, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game over 38 appearances in 2026.
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency59neutral
Projection
9.8 PTS(×1.04 context)
L5 9.4 · L10 10.0 · med 9.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 8.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Season17 games
41%over
7 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 16/17 | ||
| 88% | 15/17 | ||
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 9.5Current | 41% | 7/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 29% | 5/17 | ||
| 18% | 3/17 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days43%3/7Low
With a teammate out
How this PTS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Brittney Griner out · Left Knee+1.8 PTS when he sits
Without (12g)
10.4 PTS
50% over 9.5
With (5g)
8.6 PTS
20% over 9.5
Kennedy Burke out · Shoulder Surgery-1.5 PTS when he sits
Without (3g)
8.7 PTS
0% over 9.5
With (14g)
10.1 PTS
50% over 9.5
Last matchup — @ ATL
Sep 17, 2026
7thof 15 in PTS allowed to guards
ATL allows 12.1 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 134 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Saniya Rivers has gone over 9.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 15 teams (12.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.