CFB FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Side
Showing all leans — 71 of 119 landed (60%).
Sep 19, 2026
20 of 29 landed- ✓Kewan LacyU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Cam CookO 94.5 RUSH YDSgot 123
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissO 272.5 PASS YDSgot 363
- ✗Baylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Drew MestemakerU 3.5 PASS TDgot 5
- ✓Cayden LeeU 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Brandon InnissO 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Jackson WilliamsU 3.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Deuce AlexanderU 4.5 RECgot 7
- ✓DeSean BishopU 111.5 RUSH YDSgot 42
- ✓Shazz PrestonU 3.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingU 73.5 REC YDSgot 52
- ✓Bryson DonelsonU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Bear BachmeierU 1.5 PASS TDgot 0
- ✗Jamal RobertsU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jayden MaiavaU 2.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Drake LindseyU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Marcel ReedU 2.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Ja'Vin SimpkinsU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jayden ScottU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Mike MatthewsU 69.5 REC YDSgot 41
- ✓DJ McKinneyU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Jeremiah SmithO 7.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Caden CreelU 24.5 FSgot 19.56
- ✗Owen McCownO 235.5 PASS YDSgot 70
- ✓Derrick McFallU 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Braylon StaleyU 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Jacory Barney Jr.O 10.5 FSgot 6
Sep 18, 2026
6 of 7 landed- ✓Cooper BarkateO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Carlos HernandezO 60.5 REC YDSgot 69
- ✓CharMar BrownU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Kenny JohnsonU 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Malachi ToneyU 7.5 RECgot 12
- ✓Conner WeigmanO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Amare ThomasO 6.5 RECgot 7
Sep 12, 2026
24 of 46 landed- ✓Drew MestemakerO 212.5 PASS YDSgot 317
- ✓Ryan WingoO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Wyatt YoungO 50.5 REC YDSgot 121
- ✓Jeremiah SmithO 6.5 RECgot 8
- ✓Baylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Coy EakinO 36.5 REC YDSgot 79
- ✗Drake LindseyU 238.5 PASS YDSgot 279
- ✗Langston LewisO 5.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Kenny JohnsonO 48.5 REC YDSgot 41
- ✗Brandon InnissO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✗DeSean BishopU 100.5 RUSH YDSgot 147
- ✗Trinidad ChamblissO 295.5 PASS YDSgot 225
- ✓Jordon DavisonU 86.5 RUSH YDSgot 23
- ✓Marcel ReedU 243.5 PASS YDSgot 163
- ✗Bryce UnderwoodO 169.5 PASS YDSgot 111
- ✗Braylon StaleyO 4.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Matt WagnerU 32.5 REC YDSgot 22
- ✗Bear BachmeierU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Shazz PrestonU 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jackson WilliamsU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Gunner StocktonU 2.5 PASS TDgot 5
- ✗Julian SayinO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Derrick McFallU 6.5 FSgot 18.3
- ✗Nate SheppardU 125.5 RUSH YDSgot 147
- ✓Mike MatthewsU 4.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Bryson DonelsonU 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Jeremiah McClellanO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Jayden MaiavaO 1.5 PASS TDgot 5
- ✗Aveion ChenaultU 2.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Cam CookU 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Dylan RileyU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓J'Koby WilliamsO 57.5 RUSH YDSgot 116
- ✗Carlos HernandezU 5.5 RECgot 6
- ✓Ja'Vin SimpkinsU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✓T.J. MooreO 4.5 RECgot 7
- ✓DJ McKinneyU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Dante MooreO 265.5 PASS YDSgot 191
- ✓Deuce AlexanderO 2.5 RECgot 8
- ✗Arch ManningO 247.5 PASS YDSgot 195
- ✓Patrick OvermyerU 3.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingO 4.5 RECgot 8
- ✓Conner WeigmanO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗DJ ScottO 8.5 FSgot 5.2
- ✗Amare ThomasO 6.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Khristian LandoU 2.5 FSgot 10.2
Sep 11, 2026
1 of 2 landed- ✗CJ BaileyU 244.5 PASS YDSgot 281
- ✓Jamal RobertsU 1.5 RECgot 1
Sep 10, 2026
1 of 2 landed- ✗Cooper BarkateO 4.5 RECgot 2
- ✓CharMar BrownU 1.5 RECgot 1
Sep 7, 2026
2 of 2 landed- ✓Kevin JenningsO 269.5 PASS YDSgot 430
- ✓Derrick McFallU 6.5 FSgot 2.2
Sep 6, 2026
1 of 3 landed- ✗Deuce AlexanderU 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissO 272.5 PASS YDSgot 336
- ✗Kewan LacyU 2.5 RECgot 4
Sep 5, 2026
12 of 23 landed- ✗T.J. MooreO 45.5 REC YDSgot 31
- ✗Jackson WilliamsU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Langston LewisO 5.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Aveion ChenaultU 2.5 RECgot 6
- ✓Brandon InnissO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Marcel ReedU 245.5 PASS YDSgot 233
- ✓Baylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Shazz PrestonU 3.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Kenny JohnsonU 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗DeSean BishopO 20.5 FSgot 13.7
- ✗Conner WeigmanO 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Bryce UnderwoodU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓Jeremiah McClellanO 2.5 RECgot 6
- ✗Que'Sean BrownU 5.5 RECgot 6
- ✗J'Koby WilliamsU 2.5 RECgot 8
- ✗DJ McKinneyU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Amare ThomasU 23.5 FSgot 27.3
- ✓Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Caden CreelO 136.5 PASS YDSgot 327
- ✓Cam CookU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jeremiah SmithO 25.5 FSgot 35.6
- ✗Ryan WingoU 4.5 RECgot 7
- ✓Owen McCownO 235.5 PASS YDSgot 275
Sep 4, 2026
4 of 5 landed- ✓Cooper BarkateU 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Bryson DonelsonU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Jayden MaiavaO 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓CharMar BrownU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✗Darian MensahU 2.5 PASS TDgot 5
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.