CFB FireFactor Accuracy
The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.
Showing all leans — 42 of 87 landed (48%).
Nov 5, 2026
2 of 3 landed- ✓Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Dominique HenryU 6.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Caden VeltkampO 317.5 PASS YDSgot 210
Oct 31, 2026
19 of 39 landed- ✗Jayden MaiavaO 244.5 PASS YDSgot 222
- ✗Malachi ToneyO 104.5 REC YDSgot 75
- ✓Drew MestemakerO 290.5 PASS YDSgot 323
- ✗Jeremiah SmithO 95.5 REC YDSgot 83
- ✗Jaylen RaynorU 1.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✗Ryan WingoO 4.5 RECgot 3
- ✓Cooper BarkateO 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Arch ManningU 235.5 PASS YDSgot 220
- ✓Wyatt YoungO 4.5 RECgot 7
- ✗Deuce AlexanderO 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Darian MensahO 2.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓King MillerO 56.5 RUSH YDSgot 78
- ✗Gunner StocktonO 19.5 FSgot 8.54
- ✗Jamal RobertsU 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Dierre Hill Jr.O 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓T.J. MooreU 50.5 REC YDSgot 36
- ✓Ashten EmoryU 2.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Jaquari LewisU 1.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Drake LindseyU 1.5 PASS TDgot 1
- ✓CJ BaileyO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✓Charlie BeckerO 23.5 FSgot 28.9
- ✓Chase HendricksO 15.5 FSgot 19.7
- ✗J'Koby WilliamsO 2.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissO 249.5 PASS YDSgot 263
- ✓Aveion ChenaultO 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Brad JacksonO 212.5 PASS YDSgot 327
- ✓Griffin WildeU 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Isaiah MozeeU 1.5 RECgot 2
- ✓Javen JacobsU 15.5 FSgot 15.1
- ✓Bear BachmeierO 223.5 PASS YDSgot 236
- ✗Nick MarshO 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Anthony ColandreaO 22.5 FSgot 13.2
- ✗Cayden LeeO 81.5 REC YDSgot 78
- ✗Matt WagnerU 4.5 RECgot 6
- ✗Ja'Vin SimpkinsO 30.5 RUSH YDSgot 9
- ✗Jalen BuckleyO 91.5 RUSH YDSgot 77
- ✗Dylan RileyO 23.5 FSgot 18.1
- ✗Collin DixonO 6.5 RECgot 6
- ✗Nate SheppardU 35.5 FSgot 43.9
Oct 29, 2026
0 of 2 landed- ✗Caden VeltkampU 322.5 PASS YDSgot 452
- ✗Easton MesserU 9.5 RECgot 16
Oct 28, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Caden CreelO 24.5 FSgot 33.46
Oct 27, 2026
1 of 1 landed- ✓Sean WilsonO 4.5 RECgot 9
Oct 24, 2026
18 of 39 landed- ✓Jayden MaiavaO 253.5 PASS YDSgot 258
- ✓Drew MestemakerO 294.5 PASS YDSgot 386
- ✗King MillerO 71.5 RUSH YDSgot 8
- ✓Deuce AlexanderO 70.5 REC YDSgot 87
- ✗Junior SherrillO 78.5 REC YDSgot 78
- ✓Trinidad ChamblissO 1.5 PASS TDgot 2
- ✗Darian MensahU 3.5 PASS TDgot 4
- ✓Arch ManningU 235.5 PASS YDSgot 212
- ✗Mike MatthewsU 4.5 RECgot 5
- ✓Chauncy CobbU 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Will Henderson IIIO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✓Makhilyn YoungU 38.5 RUSH YDSgot -2
- ✗Wayne KnightO 2.5 RECgot 0
- ✓Isaiah HortonO 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✓T.J. MooreU 52.5 REC YDSgot 25
- ✗Cam CookO 1.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Marvis ParrishO 2.5 FSgot 0.9
- ✗Baylin BrooksU 2.5 RECgot 3
- ✗Charlie BeckerO 23.5 FSgot 6.2
- ✓Isaiah Sategna IIIO 80.5 REC YDSgot 164
- ✓Patrick OvermyerU 6.5 RECgot 1
- ✗Jackson WilliamsO 4.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Drake LindseyU 1.5 PASS TDgot 0
- ✗DJ ScottO 59.5 RUSH YDSgot 8
- ✗Kevin JenningsU 2.5 PASS TDgot 3
- ✓Caden VeltkampO 313.5 PASS YDSgot 339
- ✓J'Koby WilliamsU 21.5 FSgot 12.1
- ✓Wyatt YoungU 5.5 RECgot 4
- ✓Griffin WildeO 5.5 RECgot 9
- ✗Amare ThomasO 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Que'Sean BrownO 6.5 RECgot 5
- ✗Nick MarshO 5.5 RECgot 2
- ✗Kenny JohnsonU 4.5 RECgot 7
- ✓Dierre Hill Jr.O 62.5 RUSH YDSgot 83
- ✗Marcel ReedO 18.5 FSgot 14.82
- ✗Coy EakinU 3.5 RECgot 4
- ✗Ashten EmoryO 45.5 RUSH YDSgot 27
- ✗Easton MesserU 7.5 RECgot 12
- ✓Malachi ToneyO 10.5 RECgot 16
Oct 23, 2026
1 of 2 landed- ✗Nate SheppardO 37.5 FSgot 19.72
- ✓CJ BaileyO 252.5 PASS YDSgot 256
How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.