Texas A&M Aggies

AJ DiNota Carries

Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

AJ DiNota has gone over 1.5 CAR in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Texas A&M
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Carries · season avg 2.0 CAR

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Verdict

vs 1.5 CARCarries

Hot overFireFactor 61/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

2.0 CAR

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
1.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — CAR per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs SAM

Nov 22, 2025

138thof 236 in CAR allowed to running backs

SAM allows 9.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, AJ DiNota has gone over 1.5 CAR 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. SAM has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 138th-most CAR of 236 teams (9.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.