South Florida Bulls

Alvon Isaac Carries

Stats updated: Dec 17, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvon Isaac has gone over 6.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: South Florida
Experience: 3 seasons

Verdict

vs 6.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line45neutral

Consistency43neutral

Projection

6.4 CAR(×0.95 context)

L5 6.6 · L10 6.6 · med 6.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.0 · ceil 7.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	90%	9/10
	70%	7/10
6.5Current	50%	5/10
	20%	2/10
	10%	1/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — CAR per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs ODU

Dec 17, 2025

139thof 236 in CAR allowed to running backs

ODU allows 9.1 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Alvon Isaac has gone over 6.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ODU has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 139th-most CAR of 236 teams (9.1 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.