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Mississippi State BulldogsAnthony Evans III
#3 · WR · 5' 11" · 180 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 69.3 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 71.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 24/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
63.5 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 72.0 · L10 68.7 · med 71.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.0 · ceil 101.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 71.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 71.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Last matchup — vs WAKE
Jan 3, 2026
163rdof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WAKE allows 42.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 43 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Anthony Evans III has gone over 71.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. WAKE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 163rd-most REC YDS of 233 teams (42.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.