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Duquesne DukesB.J. Alexander
#6 · WR · 6' 3" · 195 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Duquesne
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 10.5 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 10.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
10.7 REC YDS
L5 10.5 · L10 10.5 · med 10.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.4 · ceil 12.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 10.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — @ AKR
Sep 20, 2025
88thof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
AKR allows 51.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 33 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 2 games, B.J. Alexander has gone over 10.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. AKR has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 88th-most REC YDS of 233 teams (51.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.