Colorado State Rams

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Colorado State
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

Passing TDs · season avg 0.3 PASS TD

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

Verdict

vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

Cool underFireFactor 40/100· model 73% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 PASS TD

L5 0.3 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/2Low

Last matchup — vs UTSA

Sep 21, 2025

97thof 234 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

UTSA allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. UTSA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 97th-most PASS TD of 234 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.