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Southern Miss Golden EaglesBraylon Braxton Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Dec 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Braylon Braxton has gone over 20.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Southern Miss
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 18.7 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
13.0 RUSH YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 14.8 · med 20.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.0 · ceil 27.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 20.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 36% | 4/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%4/10Low
Last matchup — vs WKU
Dec 23, 2025
28thof 234 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WKU allows 46.7 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Braylon Braxton has gone over 20.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. WKU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most RUSH YDS of 234 teams (46.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.
More Braylon Braxton research
Braylon Braxton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Braxton Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Braxton Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Braxton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.