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Cincinnati BearcatsBrendan Sorsby Passing TDs
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brendan Sorsby has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 2.0 PASS TDSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsHot overFireFactor 59/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
2.2 PASS TD(×1.05 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 2.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2011 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Season11 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 1.5Current | 73% | 8/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days80%8/10Low
Last matchup — @ TCU
Nov 29, 2025
61stof 234 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
TCU allows 1.8 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brendan Sorsby has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 73% across the full season. TCU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 61st-most PASS TD of 234 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.
More Brendan Sorsby research
Brendan Sorsby — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Sorsby Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Sorsby Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Sorsby Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.