Loading…
Fresno State BulldogsBryson Donelson
#6 · RB · 5' 11" · 205 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Fresno State
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 52.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 36.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
48.9 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 53.2 · L10 41.4 · med 35.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.2 · ceil 70.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 36.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 36.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs RICE
Sep 27, 2026
119thof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
RICE allows 42.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bryson Donelson has gone over 36.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. RICE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 119th-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (42.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 39.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 66.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+3.8%
Our model puts the over at 53.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (67.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.