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Miami HurricanesCarson Beck
#11 · QB · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 238.3 PASS YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 256.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 9/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency56neutral
Projection
225.1 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 201.6 · L10 232.9 · med 257.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 189.0 · ceil 274.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 256.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 256.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — @ IU
Jan 20, 2026
199thof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IU allows 161.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Carson Beck has gone over 256.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 199th-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (161.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 62.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.