Army Black Knights

Carson Smith Receptions

Stats updated: Dec 27, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Carson Smith has gone over 0.5 REC in 0 of his last 8 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

Frozen underFireFactor 90/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC(×0.94 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 108 games

0%over

0 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–32%

Last 208 games

0%over

0 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–32%

Season8 games

0%over

0 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–32%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/7Medium

Last matchup — vs CONN

Dec 27, 2025

135thof 236 in REC allowed to running backs

CONN allows 1.1 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Carson Smith has gone over 0.5 REC 0 of 8 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CONN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 135th-most REC of 236 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.