Loading…
Wisconsin BadgersCarter Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Carter Smith has gone over 5.5 FS in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.9 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency42neutral
Projection
6.7 FS
L5 6.9 · L10 6.9 · med 5.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.2 · ceil 8.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 25% | 1/4 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Last matchup — @ MINN
Nov 29, 2025
205thof 234 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
MINN allows 13.0 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Carter Smith has gone over 5.5 FS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MINN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 205th-most FS of 234 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Carter Smith research
Carter Smith — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Smith Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Smith Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Smith Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.