Louisville Cardinals

Chris Bell Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chris Bell has gone over 12.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.2 FS

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Verdict

vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

14.0 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 11.2 · L10 18.8 · med 13.3

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 9.6 · ceil 29.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	9/11
	73%	8/11
	55%	6/11
12.5Current	55%	6/11
	45%	5/11
	36%	4/11
	36%	4/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%6/10Low

Last matchup — @ SMU

Nov 22, 2025

54thof 233 in FS allowed to wide receivers

SMU allows 12.1 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 48 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Chris Bell has gone over 12.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. SMU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 54th-most FS of 233 teams (12.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.