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Akron ZipsCibastian Broughton
#11 · QB · 5' 11" · 175 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Nov 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Akron
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 190.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 226.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 44/100· model 35% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency51neutral
Projection
194.6 PASS YDS
L5 190.0 · L10 190.0 · med 227.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 157.4 · ceil 230.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 226.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 226.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs WMU
Nov 11, 2026
103rdof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WMU allows 211.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 3 games, Cibastian Broughton has gone over 226.5 PASS YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. WMU has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 103rd-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (211.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 55.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.