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Oregon DucksDante Moore
#5 · QB · 6' 3" · 220 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 254.6 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 265.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 31/100· model 81% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line81supports it
Consistency60neutral
Projection
316.0 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 273.6 · L10 264.2 · med 282.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 195.4 · ceil 302.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 265.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 265.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Next matchup — @ USC
Sep 26, 2026
114thof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
USC allows 193.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dante Moore has gone over 265.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. USC has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 114th-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (193.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 61.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 279.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+30.7%
Our model puts the over at 80.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.