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App State MountaineersDavid Larkins Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Dec 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
David Larkins has gone over 12.5 FS in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- App State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.8 FSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 12/100· model 32% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
9.6 FS
L5 9.8 · L10 9.8 · med 12.7
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.4 · ceil 13.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 12.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Last matchup — vs GASO
Dec 29, 2025
124thof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends
GASO allows 4.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, David Larkins has gone over 12.5 FS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. GASO has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 124th-most FS of 223 teams (4.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.
More David Larkins research
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.